So I was channel surfing the other day and I happen to start watching this show on PBS with Bill Moyers and some economist guy. They were discussing the future of the American and world economy, and this guy made all sorts of various predictions about how things are probably going to be the way they are (lousy) for a while.
Not long after, I surfed into another PBS show with two investment advisers who were basically saying the same thing: they predicted that the economy is probably going to stay where it is for a year, more likely two or three, or even longer.
And there are lots of people all over the media who are all saying the same thing.
While I appreciate their making the effort to enlighten me, here is my question to these economists who are making so many dire (and amazingly consistent with one another) predictions: where the hell were you last spring? Did any of these economists who are now trotting around making appearances on news programs predict what happened last fall? The answer, of course, is a resounding "no."
Since none of them were able to come anywhere close to a correct prediction of the near future last year, why should we put any weight on the predictions they are making this year?
Here is the only prediction that you can really trust: the economy will either get worse, get better, or it will stay the same.
The one guy I would really like to hear from is the one who tried to blow the whistle on that whole Bernie Madoff thing. He is the only one who can claim to having a history of paying attention and knowing what the heck is going on.
Here is my prediction: every single economist you see on television for the near future is going to predict doom and gloom, because that is the safest bet for their professional standing and reputation. If things get better, no one is going to remember their dour predictions, and they can claim that they were just being cautious and conservative in order to serve our best interests. But if anyone of them dares to stand up and say, "hey, things might get a whole lot better really fast," and it doesn’t come true, that reputation will be shot.
Sadly, these dour predictions are self-fulfilling prophecies because as long as industry leaders see bad news on television, they're all going to hold back on any new programs or spending.
I refuse to listen to these people. Their vision of the immediate future from last year was useless, and I predict that their predictions for next year will be about the same.
© Justin Locke
